NFL Week 8 picks, odds and player props - The Washington Post

J-E-T-S! Jets! Jets! Jets? Those New York Jets gutted out a sloppy 16-9 win over the Denver Broncos on Sunday for their fourth straight victory, pushing their record to 5-2 for their best start since 2010. That was also another ticket cashed for our best bets, which locked in the Jets at +1½ but recommended playing them anywhere up to a spread of -2½.

Unfortunately for the Jets, the win came at a cost. Rookie running back Breece Hall, who has been their best offensive player, was lost for the season because of a torn ACL. The Jets traded for James Robinson on Monday, but expect the offense to lose some oomph without its star player, and adjust your power rankings accordingly.

Speaking of ugly box scores, the Washington Commanders upset the Green Bay Packers, 23-21, narrowly tanking our under-41.5-points ticket. Things were looking bearable after a chaotic first half — it ended 14-10 with seven punts, an interception and a missed field goal — but the second half produced four more scoring drives, sealing the under's loss.

From Week 7: NFL scoring is down. Is it time to start betting the under

One bright spot in that game was the reemergence of Washington wide receiver Terry McLaurin. As expected, Taylor Heinicke's version of Washington's offense resulted in an increased role for McLaurin, who had eight targets and five receptions for 73 yards and a score. That performance cashed our weekly player prop recommendation — McLaurin over 4.5 catches — and also made a winner of a modest single-game parlay for yours truly focused on McLaurin's receiving yards with a touchdown.

As for this week's games, the Arizona Cardinals scored an impressive 42 points in last week's win over the New Orleans Saints, causing their Week 8 meeting with the Minnesota Vikings to tighten from Cardinals +6 to Cardinals +3.5. It's a strange line move considering the Vikings were on a bye and did nothing to hurt themselves, while Arizona benefited from three Andy Dalton interceptions in its win. Take those turnovers away and the Cardinals scored 13 fewer points than expected after taking into account the down, distance and field position of every other play, per data from TruMedia. My power ratings have this game Minnesota -7, and I made a small wager on Vikings -6½ at +126 odds.

Best bets record: 7-8

Picks were made against the consensus point spreads as of Tuesday evening; odds that have since changed have been updated in bold type, but picks are locked in at the earlier odds.

San Francisco 49ers (-1½) at Los Angeles Rams

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Sunday, 4:25 p.m. | Fox

Pick: San Francisco 49ers -1½

The 49ers are coming off an embarrassing 44-23 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs, but they probably won't look the same this week. San Francisco should be in better position to incorporate its newest addition, running back Christian McCaffrey, into the game plan, giving the opposing defense a tough decision to make when McCaffrey and wideout Deebo Samuel are on the field together. That could be especially challenging when San Francisco Coach Kyle Shanahan decides to go empty — a formation in which the offense lines up with nobody in the backfield other than the quarterback — with McCaffrey split out wide.

49ers come out in 21 personnel, I-formation. Defense comes out in base (4-3).

49ers shift to empty with CMC split out wide.

Good luck to the LB trying to cover this route 👇 pic.twitter.com/zfZzPvuKL6

— Ted Nguyen (@FB_FilmAnalysis) October 23, 2022

The 49ers also have had one more week for left tackle Trent Williams (ankle) to get healthier, which could give San Francisco its entire starting offensive line on the field for just the second time since Week 3. Pass rushers Nick Bosa (groin) and safety Talanoa Hufanga (concussion) also should benefit from being off the injury list, although both played in last week's loss. Bosa has been the league's fourth-best pass rusher, per Pro Football Focus, while Hufanga has been the 12th-best safety in coverage.